1. Polyester filament promotion, limited production and sales promotion
2. Polyester staple fiber narrow pull up prices, downstream demand weak drag
3. Polyester boot load remains high, but the reduction is expected to be strong
4. Ethylene glycol is suppressed by the demand and supply sides, and the market trend continues to be weak. The profits of ethylene glycol in various processes have declined to varying degrees. Basically all below the cost, the overall drag on market confidence, resulting in downstream goods careful. The short-term MEG market is filled with weak emotions, but the price has been relatively low, the market has a relatively limited space for a large decline, and the probability of a low oscillation is relatively large.
Details:
Basic Analysis of Polyester
1, polyester filament promotion, limited production and sales promotion
Polyester products are used as a product to connect upstream raw materials and terminal consumption. The polyester industry season "Jinjiuyin" is nearing the end, the peak season is not prosperous, polyester filament as the main downstream product, the terminal gradually weakened its demand, the downstream factory has repeatedly promoted production and sales through preferential promotion, but the overall trend is still weak operation.
2, polyester staple fiber narrow pull up prices, downstream demand weak drag
In terms of short fiber, due to the loss of pre-cost, despite the boost of macro news, the factory's narrow price has risen, but the downstream demand is weak and the terminal is weak, resulting in an increase in factory inventory, poor market mentality, and insufficient consumer confidence.
3, polyester boot load remains high, but the negative expectation is strong
The polyester boot load is still maintained at a high level. According to the operating rate of the polyester plant and the plans for new production and maintenance of the device, the estimated output in October is about 4.4 million tons. However, based on the weak performance of the downstream weaving and terminal garment home spinning industry, there is a lot of uncertainty in the case of low production and sales, low profit, and the long-term maintenance of high construction of polyester factories. Therefore, under the expectation that the polyester factory may actively reduce production in the fourth quarter, the expected value of polyester production will be reduced, further weakening the support of the demand side of ethylene glycol.
Fundamental analysis of supply and demand of ethylene glycol
1, under the expectation of the new device put into operation, the domestic ethylene glycol starting load reduced positive support limited
From the point of view of domestic supply, domestic ethylene glycol factories began to overhaul in October. In the near future, the start load of ethylene glycol was 56.07 %. The coal ethylene glycol operation rate was around 58.61 %, and the comprehensive operation rate of ethylene glycol was 58.15 %. %, significantly lower than the previous period.
In the fourth quarter of 2019, the production of new devices in the ethylene glycol market is expected to gradually begin to land. As the installation production time is approaching, the ethylene glycol market is facing a turning point in the storage and storage. The supply end pressure is getting larger and larger, and the supply shrinkage brought by the maintenance of the device is difficult to form an effective positive support.
2, the port inventory fell to a low level, the number of arrivals is crucial
In terms of port inventory, as of October 17, the MEG port inventory in the main port area of East China was stable and small, and the port inventory was 611,000 tons, which was 28,000 tons lower than the previous period. According to CCF statistics, the total arrival of MEG in East China next week is expected to be around 198,000 tons, and the arrival volume is neutral and is expected to be stable.
In 2019, domestic and foreign plans to put 5.65 million tons of ethylene glycol production capacity, foreign equipment target exporting countries are also mainly concentrated in China, supply pressure is still large.
3, ethylene glycol profit decline, drag down market confidence
The price of ethylene glycol is low, and the domestic construction situation is relatively low. After the market consistency bearish trend, the dynamic changes of the price and profit of ethylene glycol market have attracted much attention. At present, the gross profit of ethylene glycol has declined to varying degrees. Basically below cost, the overall drag on market confidence.
According to the current situation of MEG supply and downstream demand, although the intention of polyester factory replenishment has declined, the port delivery level has fallen, and the progress of port inventory deconversion has slowed significantly; However, October still showed a large amount of storage, mainly reflected in the polyester factory raw material inventory. In the fourth quarter, MEG will still have a large amount of inventory deconversion without counting the new devices. When the new device is put into operation, an additional 110,000 to 220,000 tons(50 %-full load) will be added in the fourth quarter of 2019, and the balance of MEG supply and demand in the fourth quarter will be maintained at -60,000 to 50,000 tons. Therefore, the probability of non-accumulation of MEG inventory in the fourth quarter is relatively large.
Ethylene glycol is suppressed by the demand side and the supply side, and the market trend continues to be weak. The profits of ethylene glycol in various processes have declined to varying degrees. Basically all below the cost, the overall drag on market confidence, resulting in downstream goods careful. The short-term MEG market is filled with weak emotions, but the price has been relatively low, the market has a relatively limited space for a large decline, and the probability of a low oscillation is relatively large.
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